Taiwanese Turmoil

Tom Krabbenhoft

Taiwan has been in the news a lot lately. Pelosi sent the media into a frenzy with a visit to the island. This led to the Chinese to Sabre rattling loud enough you could hear it in a vacuum.

Truth be told, Americans have been visiting this tiny nation a long time. We’ve been selling them weapons since 1950. I know many former military members that have lived there as contractors. It’s a sweet and money making gig.

The current Chinese leadership has been very vocal of their ownership of Taiwan. They have conducted some of their largest military exercises ever recently near the small island, including launching ballistic missiles.

The small island located 100 miles off the coast of China has had an interesting history.

The island first came under Chinese control in the 1700s. It became under Japanese control after the first Sino Japanese War. After WW2 Civil War broke out in China. Mao and his great march through the countryside (which is a clever renaming of an insurgency) eventually chased out the ruling Nationalists. The Nationalists under Chiang Kai-Shek fled mainland China to Taiwan and established its own government. China claims it’s been part of China, the Taiwanese claim truthfully that it’s never been part of modern China. It’s easy to see the difficult situation this has caused. Only 13 countries (plus the Vatican) officially recognize Taiwan. China puts extreme political pressure on countries that even hint about Taiwan.

Why does it matter? Taiwan matters as it sits strategically on the base of the first island chains. It’s close to US allies Philippines, South Korea, Japan and smaller allies. China taking Taiwan would enable them to threaten bases such as Guam and Hawaii.

Taiwan’s economy is a powerhouse. It produces over half the world’s semiconductors and computer chips which powers our electronics.

China has a huge military but little military successes. It outnumbers Taiwan 10-1. China would have to conduct an invasion amphibiously. The Taiwanese would have to delay the Chinese and hope for help, most likely US, Japanese, South Korean. They would then conduct a guerrilla war as the Ukrainians are. China can lose a million troops. Chinas absolute control of the media would minimize any casualties or bad news coming from such a war.

The Taiwanese themselves are very comfortable. Over two thirds are not worried about a conflict with China. In the same study, 30 percent of Twainese consider themselves both Chinese and Taiwanese. Most consider themselves only Taiwanese, so they have national pride.

In light of Russian failures and losses, China will have to think long and hard if they want to unsheathe those rattling sabers anytime soon.