Things seem to be getting pretty out of control in Iraq these days; in fact it seems to be as about as close to an all-out civil war as it can possibly be without actually quite being there. But I’m sure that a civil war is just around the corner. The situation was similar in 2006 and 7 when I was there with sectarian violence and rival groups killing each other. The difference this time is that the Americans aren’t there to get in the way or attempt to try to keep some semblance of peace, but without that common point at which to focus the multiple sides’ anger, it will be unleashed on each other. Unfortunately, that will also include innocent bystanders who want nothing more than to live their lives in peace.

It’s really easy to look at Iraq and other parts of the Middle East as a whole and just write them all off as blood thirsty animals, and it’s tough to argue that small parts of the population are just that, but I’ve said this before and I’ll say it again, the vast majority of the people in Iraq are very good and honest who want nothing more than a peaceful life. This fact is illustrated by the hundreds of thousands of people that are fleeing their homes because they want no part of the extremist forms of Islam that these terrorist groups support.

I spent fifteen months deployed to Iraq, much of the time was spent interacting with and living with the local people there. It’s really difficult to understand how a place can be so chaotic, and the situation is so large and complex that volumes of books could be written about it.

In America many people are politically active. We campaign for people we want in office and debate with people who we disagree with. But at the end of the day, whichever person gets elected as President or Governor, the other side typically doesn’t start to worry that the person they voted against is going to use the military to start murdering the opposition. This is not so in Iraq. It’s been happening forever there, but most noticeably while under the rule of Saddam Hussein. He was a Sunni Muslim and wasn’t shy about being a bully to anyone and everyone he felt a threat. After his demise, there was an immediate struggle for someone else to take power so something like that wouldn’t happen again, but in reality, whoever ended up in power was going to end up exactly like that because there are still various other groups that want that same power so they can ensure that their group doesn’t fall victim to a violent and discriminatory government that despises them once again. Right now it could best be summarized like this; Saddam Hussein, the long term dictator and bully is gone, so all of these smaller groups that were the brunt of his ruthlessness are fighting with life and limb to take over the power that he left behind so that their group can take control. It’s like the kids game of ‘King of the Hill’ but the kids playing this game are pushing the other kids with fully automatic machine guns and enormous bombs that can level a city block.

My prediction in this matter is that no amount of international political pressure or training of Iraqi security forces is going to solve this problem. There is such a level of distrust and disdain amongst groups that have been fighting each other since before America was even on the map that we could send our troops and money and guns there for 10, 20, 50, or 100 years and we wouldn’t be able to foster a peaceful result to this because as soon as we leave, they’ll still be left with multiple groups of people that don’t trust each other and want to steal the power so they can ensure they’re group has power while beating down the other groups to ensure their own survival.

I personally get sick of hearing people’s political opinions as it is, but given the choice, I’d rather live here and have to put up with that than live in a place where my very survival depends on which particular group seizes power at any given time.