If you had Amy Winehouse in your local dead pool, congratulations.

Winehouses death was perhaps the least surprising news story of the century. It was about as big a shock as Dale Earnhardt dying in a car crash or Karl Wallenda falling off the high wire. My record on predictions is pretty spotty I recently predicted Casey Anthony would be convicted but even I could have foreseen that Winehouses chances of making it to her 30s were pretty slim.

The tone here might be a little snarky, but somehow, when somebody is obviously heading for a bad end and finally reaches it, its hard for me to be real sympathetic. The woman had everything most people would sell their souls for, but she insisted on putting it in her vein or in her lungs she apparently was in the early stages of emphysema due to some of her drug use and that was her choice. She did a deeply stupid thing.

This is being written just days after her death and no announcement has been made about the actual cause. Everybodys pretty much assuming its an overdose; I suppose the only suspense is whether or not it was accidental. She had a self-destructive streak big enough to have its own ZIP code.

Of course, her death is a tragedy, as is any death of somebody 27 years old. Within hours of her death, though, people were piling on the pathos. There were articles noting that other rock stars, including Janis Joplin and Jimi Hendrix, died at the same age. Winehouse isnt in the same league as people like that artistically; musicians are still being influenced by Joplin and Hendrix more than a generation after they died. But I guess when youre a rock music journalist (which Frank Zappa famously characterized as people who cant write interviewing people who cant talk for people who cant read), youve got to find some significance in what turned out to be a sad, pathetic end.

Winehouse obviously wasnt real fond of herself and people are going to portray her as a Tortured Artist. That would be a lot easier for me to swallow if she didnt sing things like her self-indulgent hit about how she wasnt going to go into rehab. Maybe she was just an idiot. It certainly gave fate a chance to look down on her and scream, Bite me!

Its one of the great myths that good art only comes out of tortured people. If youre a certain kind of genius, thats true; Van Gogh wasnt a happy camper. But there are plenty of joyful artworks out there and Ive met plenty of good artists who also were fairly happy people. Good art doesnt have to come out of suffering. All thats required is talent and a willingness to work hard. If you choose to work out your suffering on the canvas or the stage, fine, as long as you can do it and are diligent. But demons alone do not great art make.

As Im writing this, Im listening to Van Morrison sing Saint Dominics Preview. Its an amazing song, both musically and lyrically. Gorgeous stuff. But its also fairly unsparing of Morrison himself; its a wry, clear-eyed view of his progress through the music business. Whether Morrison actually likes himself more than Winehouse (hes a notoriously cranky interview), whatever demons he has he manages to put out there in his work in a way that makes you think.

Now, on an artistry scale, Van Morrison will be remembered long after Amy Winehouse is a trivia question. Granted, Im a huge fan, but I defy you to find me a better songwriter (Tom Waits comes close). The mans lyrics worm their way into your brain and, even at their most obscure, their imagery and pure poetry are amazing.

And as far as I know, Morrison has never showed up at a concert so stoned he was booed offstage, as Winehouse did. That, to me, is prima facie evidence that she was a jerk. I dont show up for work toasted and people dont have to pay to come see me write. That Winehouse had so little respect for her fans, much less herself, that she would do that tells me she just wasnt a very decent person.

Harsh? Sure. Cruel? Maybe. Realistic? Yup.

The fact is, the woman had every opportunity to get help. She chose not to. She died a lonely, awful, sad death, but you know what? So does an old person who dies alone at home. So does a child with cancer. So does a poor person whos too broke to afford medical care that couldve kept him alive.

It kind of reminds me of a work by another great artist, Bob Dylan. In The Lonesome Death of Hattie Carroll, he tells the (true) story of a poor woman who was killed by a rich young tobacco farmer, who was able to buy enough justice that he only got a six-month sentence. In the chorus, Dylan sings, Take the rag away from your face/Nows not the time for your tears. After the sentencing, he changes the chorus: Bury the rag deep in your face/Now is the time for your tears.

So lets not overstate the tragedy of Amy Winehouse. Feel bad for her family and, if you liked her music, go ahead and feel bad for the work you will never hear. But dont feel bad about the way she died. It didnt have to happen. When death comes at a persons invitation, they deserve a little less sympathy. If you need to feel sorry for somebody, feel sorry for the thousands who die every day for reasons they cant even know, much less control.