I’ve been following pretty closely the recent developments in Iraq, I guess because of the personal connection I feel to the place and the sweat and blood equity I have personally invested. One of the unfortunate things I have heard as a possible solution is to just carpet bomb the entire region and eliminate the people and problems. I’m not overly supportive of this plan as the murder of millions of people isn’t really a bandwagon that I’m comfortable jumping onto. That being said, the more I think about what is happening there, the more I start to feel like I know what is going to happen in the long run.

Iraq is made up different religious sects, and different tribes within those sects, and there is a great amount of distrust among them due to years of fighting and one group abusing and exploiting others. ISIS is primarily made up of Sunni Muslims that have perverted their religion and misinterpreted portions of the Qaran to justify their current actions. They have systematically engaged in ethnic cleansing of Shiite Muslims as well as Christians, Yizidis, and Kurds. In addition to that they have also begun eliminating other Sunni Muslims who have realized that they are not living during the times of the Crusades and want nothing more than basic freedoms associated with human rights. Lately the Iraqi National Army has begun trying to take back some of the land and towns that were lost to ISIS when the Iraqi Army deserted their bases last year when ISIS stormed across the country. The progress they are making is good, but if I was a betting man I would predict it’s going to lead to more violence, even after ISIS is gone.

I’m going to guess that after ISIS is expelled from Iraqi territory there will be even more violence in a power struggle because of the underlying distrust among the different religious and political groups in Iraq. Right now the Iraqi Army is comprised primarily of Shiite Muslims as many have volunteered for the purposes of fighting against ISIS. It is a certainly a good thing that Iraqi’s are signing up to fight for their country but again, if I was a betting man I would bet that defeating ISIS will not be the end of what they do there. History of the region has shown that once a particular group gains any sliver of power they then use that power to “avenge” what they see is the past abuses of another group. Saddam Hussein was a Sunni Muslim, and when he was removed from power a number of Shia militias formed to seek revenge for the abuses against them. Because of that many Sunni militias, including ISIS formed and are now tearing through the country slaughtering Shia’s as well as all other groups, and now the largely Shia National Army is launching offensives to remove ISIS from the areas they have taken. It is a fairly predictable cycle of violence and killing that in the long run hasn’t solved any of the underlying problems in that country.

In a perfect world the Iraqi Government would eliminate ISIS and strive to embrace all sects of their religion as well as the other groups in the area and attempt to create a sense of national unity that is fair to everyone. In a more realistic world, the Iraqi Army will push ISIS out of their strongholds and then go on to once again seek retribution on all Sunni Muslims, including those who also oppose ISIS but unfortunately share their religion. When you then consider that Iran, which has an overwhelming Shiite majority population is now helping the Iraqi Army it could be even worse. Iran has a vested interest in seeing Iraq become a Shia dominant country as they are actively seeking to become a greater regional power as they seem to feel threatened by Saudi Arabia who has a Sunni majority. So the chances of Iraq’s offensive to retake its country could very well turn into war against all Sunni Muslims which would again be grounds for a larger regional war. When you throw into that mess that America has a political and economic interest in what happens in the Middle East you get a messy puzzle that has a lot of pieces that don’t fit together.

So while it is nice to see that Iraq is slowly taking back its country, I can’t help but think about how this will end. I certainly hope that my predictions are incorrect but the world doesn’t seem to be very good at learning from its mistakes, and studying its history to improve our future. Our world has a violent history and all indications are pointing towards an equally if not more violent future.