Last week I wrote about why I think ISIS is eventually going to bring about its own downfall. I still believe that and become more convinced of it each day but I wanted to expand and give my reasons why I feel that way. I don’t think they will just burn out and disappear, which would be nice, but it’ll most likely be a bloody and violent struggle that I don’t think ISIS can feasibly win for a number of reasons. But like I also said last week, I think that things will get worse before they can get better.

I believe their first fatal flaw is that they aren’t very good at making alliances. We have the most powerful military in the history of the world, but if we had no alliances our military wouldn’t stand on its own for very long if everyone else in the world turned against us, which is what’s happening to them. One of the principals of ISIS is that if you want to fight with them you have to completely submit to them, which is why other terrorist organizations separate themselves from them as well. They are setting up a scenario in which it’s ISIS against the world and there isn’t a military force anywhere that can stand up to those odds and win. Their only hope is to keep recruiting more fighters, which is also becoming increasingly difficult since travel to Iraq and Syria isn’t an easy thing to do, especially with so many governments tracking their citizens and travelling habits.

Various intelligence agencies have estimated that ISIS currently has about 35-40,000 members, yet they were able to overtake large pieces of land that were defended by much larger forces because they used a Blitzkrieg style offensive to run off larger conventional armies. With the eyes of the world now watching they no longer have the element of surprise on their side. With drones essentially circling any area they can no longer mount large scale troop movements because they then become a target for drone strikes. Drone strikes alone will not eliminate them, but they are effective in controlling their movements and actions until a competent and preferably not American ground force can destroy them.

Since it has taken over large areas, ISIS has essentially tried to set up a functioning government based on very strict Islamic laws, and their stated goal is to eventually spread their rule over the entire world. It’s a rather lofty goal but one that’ll never work because they lack every type of legitimacy. And given their stated goal to continue expanding their territory they will ultimately keep pissing people off. They have seen success in Iraq and Syria because Iraq is a shattered country with a weak military and Syria has been in a Civil War for several years and doesn’t have the capability to push them out. However, there aren’t a lot of other countries in the area that will just roll over and allow them to remain in their country. Certainly Turkey, Saudi Arabia, and Iran are more than capable of fighting them off if properly provoked, which would be nice from an American standpoint because then we wouldn’t have to commit troops to keep going there.

ISIS is a formidable enemy. They don’t have a conventional army with which to fight off large attacks but they are extremely good at non-conventional warfare. They have very capable fighters that have been hardened by combat and very highly trained which makes a world of difference in warfare. That is why they have survived this long, and why they were able to survive a decade of war against us in Iraq. They are very barbaric, but they aren’t stupid when it comes to group preservation. But like I said, I believe their own ideology and actions are what are going to eventually lead to their end.