Late Spring, Heat Waves, Wet Cycles, Oh My!
It has been a season for climatological records in our country: record heat, record rainfall, record drought. We wonder when it will all end as we hope the warm weather continues as we know what the alternative brings. All the rain and humidity leads us to wonder how long this might continue.
The nature of the wet cycle means precipitation and moisture feeds on itself, keeping the region wet for prolonged periods of time without much time to dry out, according to Dr. Adnan Akyuz, North Dakota Agricultural Weather Network (NDAWN) director, North Dakota State Climatologist at North Dakota State University in Fargo.
The current wet period started in 1991 for eastern North Dakota and it isnt slowing down. Looking at the precipitation data since 1981 for Fargo and at the wet periods and the dry periods for eastern North Dakota, including all of the Red River Valley, there is no indication of it slowing.
Akyuz said its difficult to predict the end of this wet cycle. I dont predict, especially when you are at the peak of the periods which should have ended three to five years ago. It is really hard to predict the end of this cycle; it is really all a guess.
It is perfectly situated to create more wetness to the north and more dryness to the south. Akyuz said. It is the nature of a wet cycle: when you have the red periods, you have an increased amount of precipitation; it fills up the soil and that moisture becomes water vapor and re-enters the atmosphere to become precipitation.
Derek Arndt, chief of the climate monitoring branch of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administrations National Climatic Data Center said, One driving factor (but not the driving factor) is a warmer atmosphere can carry more water vapor, and therefore is poised to deliver more water, on average, than a cooler atmosphere. A drought can, and is, part of the natural climate of the Plains.
Studies show a drought, similar to that of the 1930s, will likely repeat by the year 2050. In the 1930s, flows were at extreme lows, and sometimes at no-flow levels in the Red River. For example, in 1934, there were nearly five consecutive months of zero flow in the Red River at Fargo, writes Kimberly Cook in the December 2009 Garrison Diversion Continues to Move Forward on Red River Valley Water Supply Project, page 26 of North Dakota Water.
The North Dakota Geological Survey Newsletter Vol. 28, No. 1, page 1: found at https://www.dmr.nd.gov/ndgs/Newsletter/NL01S/PDF/mores01.pdf indicates: Floods like the one on Devils Lake are the result of an ongoing and poorly understood wet-cycle. The current wet cycle, which climatologists believe began about 1980, has filled Devils Lake and many of the sloughs in eastern North and South Dakota to overflowing. It is typical of innumerable similar, natural cycles that have occurred in the geologic past. Devils Lake, and nearly all of the small lakes and sloughs that dot North Dakotas glaciated terrain, have risen and fallen overflowed or dried up completely dozens of times in response to these climatic cycles. The problem is that many areas that were flooded in the recent geologic (but prehistoric) past are now developed (the towns of Devils Lake, Minnewaukan and Churchs Ferry are situated on the old lake plain). As the lake rises, it floods land that has not been flooded in human memory.
Pete Boulay, the assistant state climatologist for the Department of Natural Resources, added, It hasnt been consistent for all places. There are places like the Red River Valley that are exceptionally wet. What has been missing from the climate out there is the absence of any multi-year drought. The climate of Minnesota and North and South Dakota is such that we can expect a major drought once every 10 years. We had the last major drought in the late 1980s. Before that we had a major drought in 1976 and then, of course, we had the Dust Bowl era, too, in the 1930s. So what it would be like is what is going on in Texas right now but we havent had that kind of weather pattern.
Boulay said that a persistent change in the weather pattern is needed to stop the wet cycle. If the weather pattern had shifted just 300 miles to the north, wed be in a major drought, but its such that the weather pattern, a high pressure system, sits far enough south, close to the jet stream, and its basically pulling up moisture into our area and its giving us this wet summer that weve had and, of course, a very humid one, too. We have been in a stagnant weather pattern this summer.
Mike Haltert, deputy director for the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administrations Climate Prediction Center in Maryland is not making predictions either. He said the tools are not giving an indication of weather patterns now or for the winter.
People might joke about conversations that begin and end with the weather, but in this agriculturally-focused valley, the weather information is vital to our livelihoods and a major part of our daily thoughts and concerns.
In a July 15 press release, the U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) reminded farmers and ranchers in states across the country that USDA offers a variety of resources for those affected by recent extreme weather, including floods, drought, fires and tornadoes. USDA also urges producers in need or those with questions to contact their local county or state USDA Service Center or Farm Service Agency office for assistance. In a recent tour of flooding in Iowa and Nebraska, as well as droughts and wildfires in Arizona and New Mexico, Agriculture Secretary Tom Vilsack promised farmers, ranchers and others that USDA would continue to work hard to deliver assistance to those in need.
Americas farmers and rural communities are vitally important to our nations economy and our values, and my heart goes out to all who are facing hardships because of severe weather and natural disasters, said Vilsack. In the past two months alone, I have visited with hundreds of Americans who have had to put their lives and livelihoods on hold to deal with floods, tornadoes, drought and wildfires. Since the beginning, I have instructed USDA staff in the affected states that our main priority must be to work with farmers, ranchers and others to explain the type of aid that is available. We will continue to listen to your concerns and, whenever possible, offer assistance to help you through these difficult times.
Heavy rainfall, snowmelt and flood conditions have caused crop damage and slowed planting in many states. USDAs Risk Management Agency reminds producers faced with questions on prevented planting, replant or crop losses to contact their crop insurance company for more information. Other types of USDA assistance available to those affected by flooding include the Emergency Loan Program and the Emergency Watershed Protection program.