Election Day is five weeks away and all is quiet on the Western Front. Also, the Eastern, Northern and Southern fronts. Even with major races on both sides of the Red River and the nation mired in deep partisanship, there doesn’t seem to be much electricity about the 2014 elections.
It might change. There is still time. Or maybe people simply find Teddy Bridgewater’s ankle way more interesting than politics. Smart people would find a paper clip or a Dixie cup way more interesting than a politician, and certainly capable of more interesting conversation, but maybe that’s a topic better saved for another day.
This is an off-year election, when the White House is not up for grabs, and so perhaps the passion just isn’t there. Lord knows there was enough bile tossed at Obama in 2012 to last six elections. And just wait until Hillary is the Democrats’ choice in 2016. Oh boy, that promises to be invective-filled. The only time the wing-nuts will be more worked up is when she runs for re-election in 2020.
It probably factors, too, the two major races in Minnesota don’t appear to be all that competitive. According to the polls, Gov. Mark Dayton and Sen. Al Franken have comfortable leads after squeaking out victories their first times around. And in North Dakota, well, if you have an “R” behind your name you could be Attila the Hun and still win by 15 points. In fact, having that moniker might enhance your standing in some areas of the state.
That doesn’t mean Election Day will be without intrigue. This is democracy in action, after all, and there is always drama. Which favorite will be the victim of an upset? Will Republicans be able to take the U.S. Senate? Will North Dakota legislative Democrats need a room bigger than a phone booth to caucus?
Here is one person’s opinion of three races worth watching over the next several weeks. They are neither the most important nor even necessarily the closest races, but could offer some fireworks that will make things interesting. The races are offered in no particular order:
Rep. Ben Lien vs. Brian Gramer, Minnesota House District 4A
Lien, a DFLer, easily won election in 2012 for the seat long held by Republican Morrie Lanning in a district largely made up of Moorhead and Oakport Township. Despite election returns showing Moorhead went heavily for Obama in both 2008 and ’12, Republicans (including Gramer) seemed baffled Lien won the seat. There almost seems to be an undercurrent of disrespect from Republicans toward Lien.
It might make for a colorful race. Lien had a very productive freshman session in St. Paul, helping secure money for (among other things) flood control and M-State Community and Technical College. Gramer seems less interested in those issues than in complaining that he and his wealthy buddies are paying too much income tax. Judging by a recent appearance on KFGO, Gramer might eventually play the “if Minnesota doesn’t lower our income tax, we all might just up and move to North Dakota” card.
That would be rich (so to speak), to say the least.
Rep. Kevin Cramer vs. George Sinner, U.S. House of Representatives in North Dakota
Cramer, the Republican, is one of those guys who many people don’t seem to like or trust very much … but yet he’s carved a career as a lifelong politician feeding at the public trough. Not bad for somebody who says he doesn’t like government.
Sinner is a banker running for public office, who acts like a banker running for public office. His campaign hasn’t exactly been an inferno, but with a legacy surname and the fact Cramer is as likable as an ingrown toenail, Sinner has given the perception of hanging close in heavily conservative North Dakota.
And then came the news last week that a polling firm (admittedly Democratic) had Sinner holding a 40-38 lead with a ton of undecided voters. Five weeks before an election in a state as red as ketchup, a Democrat being that close to an incumbent Republican means this race will be tremendous theater down the stretch.
Imagine if Sinner were to win. North Dakota would be back to two Democratic congressional representatives, and three if you believe John Hoeven is enough of a centrist to qualify as a “D.”
Ryan Rauschenberger vs. Jason Astrup, North Dakota tax commissioner
This is not the spiciest office at stake, but you can’t beat the backstory.
Rauschenberger is the incumbent Republican. He was appointed to the office by Gov. Jack Dalrymple, whose chief of staff happens to be Ron Rauschenberger. Who happens to be Ryan’s father. One-party nepotism at its best.
Ryan, already with a reputation of being something of a partier, made headlines early in the campaign when his SUV was involved in a rollover in Mandan in the middle of a workday. Turns out Rauschenberger, while he was supposed to be at work doing the people’s business, was drinking with a buddy and gave his keys to said buddy so the allegedly inebriated buddy could go on a “smoke run.”
Not good. But it gets worse. Earlier that day, Rauschenberger was cited for reckless driving after rear-ending a stopped car at about 8:30 in the morning.
After all this became public (key word: after), Rauschenberger admitted he’s been struggling with addiction and had relapsed. He announced he was taking a leave of absence from his tax commissioner’s position to enter rehab and would begin campaigning again only after getting his personal life back on track.
In any other state other than blood-red North Dakota, Rauschenberger would likely be finished. Yes, there is a measure of sympathy that goes with addiction. But he’s the 31-year-old son of the governor’s chief of staff who was involved in a couple of messy traffic crashes. In Minnesota Democrats and the big-city media would bury him. It remains to be seen whether Astrup and the Democrats will be able to unseat him. If they can’t, can they ever win another statewide race?
(Mike McFeely is a talk-show host on 790 KFGO-AM. His show can be heard weekdays from 2-5 p.m. Follow him on Twitter @MikeMcFeelyKFGO.)