Invasive Carp

Strategic Farming: Let’s talk crops! Focused on grain markets

U of M Extension

Dr. Frayne Olson, Crop economist and marketing specialist from North Dakota State University, expects the January 12 USDA reports to set a reference point for the markets going forward. Crop inventories, consumption and South American crops will all play roles in 2024.
Increased acreage led to a record corn crop in 2023. Although demand has been relatively strong, ending stocks and the stocks-to-use ratio are relatively high. Average prices tend to be lower and more stable when the ratio is high because the inventory acts as a buffer.
Corn consumption is key. The livestock sector consumes the most corn and demand is relatively stable. Ethanol production is second in corn use and these numbers don’t vary much, according to the Department of Energy’s weekly tracking.
“If there’s a shock to the system,” Dr. Olson explains, “it will likely come from the export market.” While the U.S. has many regular grain customers, China has been very volatile. After being one of the top importers of US corn, Chinese demand dropped significantly when they purchased from Brazil instead.
Despite this volatility, Japan is increasing its import volume. While export volume is trending higher, the U.S. does have competition. After leading corn exports for decades, Brazil has taken that number one spot.
The South American crop is also key. After drought in Argentina, weather and yield outlooks are more favorable. Brazil is the larger exporter, producing two crops of corn and one of soybeans.
In the south, first crop corn and soybeans are grown simultaneously. After early drought, weather conditions are more normal conditions and exportable stocks are expected. With corn harvest in March and April, southern Brazil generally competes with us during our summer months. The larger, second corn crop –called sefrinha – is grown further north and is planted after the soybean crop, typically during January and February.
Yields of Brazil’s current soybean crop are starting to stabilize after early drought damage. The exception may be part of the northern region where yields have been reduced. If problems continue, soybean buyers may shift to the U.S. to cover their positions.
Compared to corn, ending stocks for soybeans have been relatively tight. Lower than expected soybean acreage and production offset a decrease in exports to keep stocks low. “Even though prices have softened over the past weeks,” says Dr. Olson, “we’re still at the higher level of the price spectrum long term.”
The crushing industry is the top consumer of soybeans as capacity has increased steadily over ten years. Plant expansions, particularly in the northern plains, have been driven by demand for renewable biodiesel. As a result, soybean demand is stable over time.
Export markets for soybeans are also volatile, with exports and export volumes on a steady downward trend. While China is, by far, our number one customer, export volume is well behind last year’s numbers. Brazil captured the export market into China with a massive crop for a longer period of time, extending sales into our harvest-to-January export window.
Ending stocks for all wheat is comfortable. Domestic milling demand is relatively stable, but like other crops, the export market has been volatile. Russia has produced large crops, especially winter wheat, that are competitive. Since agricultural products are not included in the sanctions, grain export has not been hindered. Spring wheat inventories are adequate and exports are better than expected, due to increased sales to Mexico. The Philippines continue to be a very stable, big buyer. A steady export pace should help the struggling market.
Olson suggests that reasons for nervousness might be changing. The USDA reports usually hit a reset button on people’s perspectives. Given lower price levels, he expects to see some increase in export volumes. Finally, markets will be engaged as the South American crops progress.

DNR releases Invasive Carp Action Plan update

The Minnesota Department of Natural Resources has released the updated Invasive Carp Action Plan for the next 10 years of prevention and management efforts in Minnesota.
The plan includes a prioritized set of recommended actions that build upon the DNR’s current intensive invasive carp efforts, including additional actions in the categories of:
Monitoring invasive carp populations to support response actions
Prevention and deterrence to limit migration in the state
Response preparation to ensure swift actions if invasive carp are found in new locations
Management and control strategies to remove fish and minimize populations
Outreach, communication and coordination to work with key partners and the public to minimize risk and impacts to the state
“Minnesota is a leader in the use of cutting-edge invasive carp management strategies to protect our waters as well as a leader in collaborative planning,” DNR Commissioner Sarah Strommen said. “I want to thank the partners who engaged in the process to inform this plan. Today’s updated action plan is a road map that will guide the DNR’s work with our partners and all Minnesotans to minimize the impact of silver, grass, bighead and black carp on our state.”
The DNR’s update of the plan was informed by engagement with more than a dozen agencies and organizations involved in preventing the spread of invasive carp in the Mississippi River.
“As we have said before, invasive carp prevention and management is a team effort, and the DNR is fortunate to be part of a big team,” DNR Invasive Carp Coordinator Grace Loppnow said. “The updated action plan prioritizes a range of prevention and management techniques — because we want to use the methods that are proving most effective. There is no single solution to this complex challenge.”
Invasive carp management efforts
The DNR and partners are already using a wide range of efforts to manage invasive carp, including tagging and tracking invasive carp to better understand and exploit their movements, contracting with commercial fishing operations to target invasive carp, and developing and testing new methods to capture invasive carp. In addition to continuing and expanding these existing efforts, the updated Action Plan also includes steps to further evaluate potential invasive carp barriers and other deterrents to protect Minnesota. To date, no evidence of invasive carp reproduction has been observed in Minnesota waters.
Additional information about invasive carp in Minnesota
Invasive carp have been moving upstream since escaping into the Mississippi River from commercial fish farms in Arkansas in the 1970s. These fish compete with native species, and silver carp are known to jump out of the water in a way that can pose a risk to boaters.
Individual invasive carp have been caught as far upstream as Pool 2 of the Mississippi River in the Twin Cities metro area (bighead, grass and silver), the King Power Plant on the St. Croix River by Oak Park Heights (bighead and silver), and just downstream of Granite Falls in the Minnesota River (bighead).
State and federal funding sources, including the Environmental and Natural Resources Trust Fund and Outdoor Heritage Fund, have provided key funding for the DNR’s invasive carp detection and response program.
Invasive carp captures in Minnesota must be reported to the DNR immediately by calling 651-587-2781 or emailing invasivecarp.dnr@state.mn.us. People are asked to take a photo and transport the carp to the nearest DNR fisheries office or make arrangements for it to be picked up by a DNR official. A permit can be requested (files.dnr.state.mn.us/natural_resources/invasives/aquaticanimals/
asiancarp/angler_caught_carp_permit.pdf) to keep captured invasive carp for consumption or disposal.
More information about invasive carp is available on the DNR website (mndnr.gov/invasivecarp).