city council

Nancy Edmonds Hanson

City engineer Bob Zimmerman says the 2022 flood outlook looks manageable at this point … depending on what the weather brings during the upcoming thaw.

“Based on current numbers and our flood plan, they put us in a pretty good position,” he said. “The 10-day forecast looks almost ideal for the spring thaw.

“But, of course, you never know.”

Zimmerman summed up the prospects for the Moorhead City Council Monday. Two of the seven factors that affect flooding, fall moisture and base streamflow, appear normal. Frost depth is generally deeper than normal. The winter snow pack and its water content are both near to somewhat greater than normal.

The last two ingredients, of course, remain a mystery – the spring thaw cycle and heavy spring rains.

Until the river begins running, the National Weather Service has released a so-called “probabilistic forecast” based on current conditions and history. Issued March 10, that suggests a 90% risk of reaching major flood stage of 30.7 feet; a 50% chance of reaching 33.6 feet; and only 5% odds of peaking at 39 feet – all well under the city’s permanent levee freeboard of 41 to 44 feet. The highest crest in city history, 40.84 feet, was in 2009.

Since then, Moorhead has nearly completed an ambitious $110 million system of levees, flood walls and infrastructure to protect residents and businesses. City staff will rely on a highly detailed plan developed to lay out a course of action, depending on the height of the crest. If the crest reaches 35 feet – a level the NWS estimates as 25% probability, the engineering and public works staff will implement about 120 measures to close removable flood gates, activate pumping stations and put other tactics into play.

At that level, Zimmerman reported, only four properties in the city would be affected. At 39 feet, currently the maximum anticipated by the forecast, the total would be 19, almost all of them among the 50 that received but rejected buy-out offers.

Completion of the final segments of the city’s flood control system, he noted, depend on the Department of Natural Resources receiving an appropriation this spring from the Minnesota Legislature. The city has requested $17.5 million for the remaining work, which includes an area of the Oakport annexation, primarily in the McCann’s and Crystal Creek additions; a flood wall to protect the First Avenue North underpass, enabling it to remain open longer; relocation of a small lift station in the Center Mall area; and completion of a short segment of levee on 40th Avenue South.

According to governmental affairs director Lisa Bode, $10 million has been included in the governor’s bonding bill.